My statement was looking past the recent glass break option you noted. Given recent events I 110% understand why that would be the primary thought, but truly I was more-so referencing the ‘normal’ timeline where the merge can is released without the quick / fast merge approach. It seems your first paragraph was geared towards that. Which is appreciated the response, but I’m not sure struck the heart of my concern / question.
I’ll try to narrow down — by the time London is released w/ 1559 included the Beaconchain will have been running for 6 to 7 months. Assume the price / MEV / fee rates show a security risk and 3368 is launched, this means a 2 year decay window puts us to mid-2023. What is the basis for thinking this will be an issue going into mid 2023?
2023 is also notable because even with the old (and now defunct) Phase 0 / 1 / 2 model the docking was still expected in 2022. Given changes to that model to eliminate Phases all together and the general sentiment to merge before sharding (even talked about outside the scope of 1559) it seems going into 2023 is essentially not going to happen and even a late 2022 is unlikely. Even the docking page of the Ethereum website is guessing 2021/2022 - https://ethereum.org/en/eth2/docking/
I understand track records / our lack of crystal balls can not lead us to a definitive statement, but surely a mid-2023 phase out is very conservative for a merge date. Mid 2022 puts us 1 year out from London and would be a more reasonable estimate for a merge date (even including the testing you noted).
So what I’m getting at is 2 years just seems far too long for something like this and doesn’t seem based on any meaningful metrics. All of which looks beyond the point I hit on initially - this is a security issue that is relatively short term (think months, not years). As you noted, a cliff. So the merits of smoothing out make sense but the decay period seems very far off. While my opinion is meaningless on the grand scale of things, I would wager a majority of the community would see 2 years as a non-starter. I don’t see how this gets traction at all unless that window is at least 1 year or less… likely even 6 months or less. The 2 year length makes the compromise of a 1 base reward essentially meaningless to the broad community since it will potentially get cut out completely or more likely just shortly lived. I wouldn’t even begin to support this until the decay was at the 1 year or less length.