- The other key reasoning is that base fee can be sufficient high to ensure that blocks will be not full. As it is not full, due to profit-maximized strategies excuted by miners, they will include any tx willing to pay base fee and a positive tip (no matter how low is it). So every tx willing to pay base fee can be included. (Is is a corrent understand to your arguement？)
This arguement is much important than the 1）.
But it is still wrong. As a profit-maximized strategy require a miner just include those txs whose tip can cover his/her marginal cost of gas production, rather than include any txs with a positive tip.
And, marginal cost of gas production is a dynamic value. Theoretically, it will increase with the amount of gas the miner decided to provide at that time. (e.g. When he/she provide the 500th gas, the marginal cost is 30gwei, but when he/she provide the 1000th gas, the marginal cost must be higher than 30gwei).
If wo do not hold the assumption that the marginal cost of gas production is a fixed value, base fee can not tell us any useful information to help users avoid overpaying. They still need to guess, just like in current mechanism